Life or death for Egypt 

Ethiopia started filling Grand Renaissance, a giant hydroelectric dam it is building on the Blue Nile, its water minister said on Wednesday after talks with Sudan and Egypt over the structure became deadlocked.

Ethiopia says the colossal dam offers a critical opportunity to pull millions of its nearly 110 million citizens out of poverty. The project is the centrepiece of Ethiopia's bid to become Africa's biggest power exporter. 

"The construction of the dam and the filling of the water go hand in hand," Water Minister Seleshi Bekele said in comments broadcast on television. "The filling of the dam doesn't need to wait until the completion of the dam."

The water level increased from 525 metres (1,720 feet) to 560 metres (1,840 feet), said Bekele.

Egypt has asked Ethiopia for urgent clarification on the matter, its foreign ministry said. The Blue Nile is a tributary of the Nile from which Egypt gets 90 percent of its fresh water.

Cairo told the United Nations last month it faces an "existential threat" from the hydroelectric dam.

Sudan's government, meanwhile, said water levels on the Blue Nile had declined by 90 million cubic metres per day after Ethiopia started filling the dam on its side of the border.

Sudan rejects unilateral actions taken by any party as negotiating efforts continue between the two countries and Egypt, its irrigation ministry said in a statement.

"It was evident from the flow metres in the Dimim border station with Ethiopia that there is a retreat in the water levels … confirming the closure of the gates of the Renaissance Dam," it said.

'Sovereign right'

Relying on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its water supply and already facing high water stress, Egypt fears a devastating effect on its population of 100 million.

In June, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shoukry warned conflict could erupt if the UN fails to intervene, as the dam endangers the lives of 150 million Egyptians and Sudanese

Ahmed Soliman, a research fellow with Chatham House, noted Egypt's water requirements already outpace its availability.

"What we have in Egypt is a significant gap between the amount of water they produce and the amount of water they consume. And with a rapidly growing population of more than 100 million, it points to this problem only getting worse," Soliman told Al Jazeera. 

Awol Allo, from Keele University in the UK, said Egypt is demanding adherence to a 1959 water treaty, signed between Cairo and Khartoum, that gave Egypt the lion's share of the Nile's annual flow.

Ethiopia was not included in that colonial-era treaty.

"I think Ethiopia has been negotiating for a considerable amount of time in good faith to reach a settlement on this issue, but the Egyptians insist on the 1959 treaty as the starting point," Allo told Al Jazeera.

"There is strong public support for the Ethiopian government to get on with the dam. The majority of Ethiopians are on the same page - that is it is their sovereign right to fill and open the dam."

Africa's largest dam

Cairo was anxious to secure a legally binding deal that would guarantee minimum flows and a mechanism for resolving disputes before the dam started operating.

Sudan stands to benefit from the project through access to cheap electricity and reduced flooding, but it has also raised fears over the dam's operation.

The dam is being built 15km (nine miles) from the border with Sudan on the Blue Nile, the source of most of the Nile's waters. 

The latest round of negotiations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the contentious dam ended with no agreement on Tuesday, according to Egyptian and Sudanese officials.

The failure sank modest hopes the three countries could resolve their differences and sign an agreement on the dam's operation before Ethiopia began to fill the $4.6bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), set to be Africa's largest.

Ethiopia says more than 60 percent of the country is dry land with no sustaining water resources, while Egypt is endowed with groundwater and has access to seawater that could be desalinated.

Addis Ababa had previously pledged to start storing water in the dam's vast reservoir at the start of the wet season in July, when rains flood the Blue Nile.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/ethiopia-begins-filling-grand-renaissance-dam-blue-nile-200715135111146.html

A war in Africa?

The Nile River, Arabic Baḥr Al-Nīl or Nahr Al-Nīl, is one of the longest rivers in the world together with the Amazon and the Mississippi-Missouri. It rises south of the Equator and flows northward through northeastern Africa to drain into the Mediterranean Sea. It has a length of about 6,650 kilometres and drains an area estimated at 3,349,000 square kilometres. Its basin includes parts of Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. Its most distant source is the Kagera River in Burundi.

Danger of war?

Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its water. and 85% of the river flow comes from the Blue Niles, which would be affected by Ethiopian use or consumption of its water.
It has historically asserted that having a stable flow of the Nile waters is a matter of survival in a country where water is scarce.

A 1929 treaty (and a subsequent one in 1959) gave Egypt and Sudan rights to nearly all of the Nile waters. The colonial-era document also gave Egypt veto powers over any projects by upstream countries that would affect its share of the waters.

Neither agreement made any allowance for the water needs of the other riparian states that were not parties to the deal, including Ethiopia, whose Blue Nile contributes much of the river waters.

Ethiopia has said it should not be bound by the decades-old treaty and went ahead and started building its dam at the start of the Arab Spring in March 2011 without consulting Egypt. 
It is important to notice that the Nile flows through the Egyptian city of Aswan around 920km south of the capital Cairo

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi was quoted as saying in September last year that it would never have got under way had Egypt not been distracted by the political turmoil.

One of the North African country's main concerns is that if the water flow drops it could affect Lake Nasser, the reservoir further downriver, behind Egypt's Aswan Dam, even though it only accounts for a small share of Egypt's electricity.

Ethiopia says one of the previous preconditions that Egypt had put for the agreement was that the dam should be connected to the Aswan dam.

Mr Seleshi told the BBC that he had explained to the Egyptians that it was "difficult to connect the two dams".

"After that they had backed down a bit on the issue but they have brought the idea back today to some extent," he said.

Egypt also fears that the dam could restrict its already scarce supply of the Nile waters, which is almost the only water source for its citizens.

It could also affect transport on the Nile in Egypt if the water level is too low and affect the livelihood of farmers who depend on the water for irrigation.

Why does Ethiopia want such a big dam?

The $4bn (£3bn) dam is at the heart of Ethiopia's manufacturing and industrial dreams. When completed it is expected to be able to generate a massive 6,000 megawatts of electricity.

Ethiopia has an acute shortage of electricity, with 65% of its population not connected to the grid.

The energy generated will be enough to have its citizens connected and sell the surplus power to neighbouring countries.

Ethiopia also sees the dam as a matter of national sovereignty.

The dam project does not rely on external funding and relies on government bonds and private funds to pay for the project.

The country has been critical of what it considers foreign interference in the matter.

Does anyone else benefit?

Yes. Neighbouring countries including Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Eritrea are likely to benefit from the power generated by the dam.

es the dam will be finished in

For Sudan there is the added advantage that the flow of the river would be regulated by the dam - meaning it would be the same all-year round.

Usually the country suffers from serious flooding in August and September.

Could the dispute lead to a war?

There have been fears that the countries could be drawn into a conflict should the dispute not be resolved.

In 2013, there were reports of a secret recording showing Egyptian politicians proposing a range of hostile acts against Ethiopia over the building of the dam.

President Sisi has also been quoted as saying that Egypt would take all the necessary measures to protect their rights to the Nile waters.

In October last year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed told MPs that "no force" could stop Ethiopia from building the dam.

The International Crisis Group warned last year that the countries "could be drawn into conflict" over the dam.

The fact that the US intervened shows the seriousness of the situation - and the need to break the deadlock.

Egypt sought the intervention of the US on the impasse, after President Sisi requested that President Trump mediate the conflict, which Ethiopia was initially reluctant to accept.

A conflict between the two states, which are both US allies, could draw global interest as it would put millions of civilians at risk.

It would threaten the vital international trade route through the Suez Canal and along the Horn of Africa, according to analysis by the Washington Institute.

So what happens now?

The next step will be for the water ministers, along with their countries' foreign ministers, to try and come to a deal before the deadline set last year of 15 January.

The timeline was set in November after a meeting between the parties and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin and World Bank President David Malpass.

So the parties representing the countries at the heart of the dispute are expected to convene again in Washington later.

"The first [option] is mediation, to see it with a mediator. Second is an issue of facilitation.

"These issues need an agreement of the three countries. Article 10 doesn't say it will be based on the desire from one country," Ethiopia's water minister told the BBC.

rump hopes the US can broker a deal between the two US allies

If they still can't agree by 15 January, the negotiators will request another mediator, or refer the matter to the heads of states, as agreed in November last year.

"What will be most appropriate for us is to present the report to our leader since there might be [progress] if they [the leaders] solve it," Mr Seleshi said.

On Sunday, Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asked South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to also help mediate in the dispute.

Mr Abiy said that, as incoming chair of the African Union, Mr Ramaphosa could help solve the problem peacefully.

The Nile basin and Egypt water vulnerability

The Nile basin presents potential management problems that could become litigious issues between countries. The sources of the White Nile and its tributaries are in the African great lakes region, mainly in Uganda, but also in Kenya,

Rwanda, and Tanzania. The Blue Nile and the Atbara, which are the main eastern tributaries, flow down from the Ethiopian highlands and provide not only a substantial portion of the water volume but also most of the sediment load.

The middle course of the Nile, below the confluence of the White and the Blue tributaries, is in Sudan, and its lower course is in Egypt.

Because the river flows from humid areas (in the south) to increasingly dry areas (in the north), the downstream populations of northern Sudan and Egypt have depended on its water for centuries. In Egypt, where rainfall does not exceed 100 millimetres annually, the Nile is the only source of water. Egypt has a population of almost 100 million,

concentrated chiefly along the banks of the Nile; most Egyptian towns and farms are densely packed in the 40 thousand square kilometres of the Nile’s floodplain.

Any change in the Nile’s regime could be a matter of life and death for the Egyptians. Currently, an international treaty ensures a minimum flow for Egypt at its southern border with Sudan. Sudan does not use its whole share of water; therefore, problems have not arisen yet.

A potential problem relates to the use of groundwater near the river. In northern Sudan and southern Egypt, the river

crosses the Tertiary sedimentary basin of Nubian sandstone, which contains a large and relatively unstudied aquifer.

An important portion of the water recharging this aquifer comes through infiltration from the Nile. Any large-scale use of the aquifer may result in a reduction in flow downstream. It will be difficult to control Sudan’s use of the aquifer, as the relation between groundwater and surface water use has not been firmly established. Recent problems in multiethnic Sudan have prevented its inhabitants from increasing their use of water for irrigation.

Another potential problem for Nile communities is the proposed draining of the Sudd wetlands with the construction of a 360-kilometre canal (the Jonglei Canal) and other related waterworks. The Sudd region of southern Sudan is an area of high biodiversity that not only regulates the flow of the White Nile, reducing the risk of catastrophic floods and droughts, but also provides abundant resources to the Nuer, Dinka, and other peoples who have lived in the area for many generations. The continuing state of war in southern Sudan has forced the project to be abandoned, and it is

unlikely to be completed in the near future.

Similar problems may arise in Ethiopia, where the Blue Nile and the Atbara rivers arise, providing 85% of Egypt’s water. Egyptians are concerned about the possible future construction of dams for power supply or irrigation in the upper basins. Political instability in Ethiopia has made any large-scale hydro development impossible, but this situation may change in the future.

In any case, a new dam was recently built and filled with water. It is the “Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”. It is a gravity dam on the Blue nile River that has been under construction since 2011. It is in the Benishangul-Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km (9 mi) east of the border with Sudan.

At 6.45 gigawatts, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed, as well as the 7th largest in the world. As of August 2017, the work stood at 60% completion. Once completed, the reservoir could take anywhere between 5 and 15 years to fill with water, depending on hydrologic conditions during the filling period and agreements reached between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.

Another pressing problem of the Ethiopian highlands is the widespread destruction of the forest or shrubby ecosystems in the upper basins. River regimes have become much more extreme, with extended droughts punctuated by periods of increased runoff. Intense erosion of the basin soils has caused a considerable increase in the solids content of the water and silting effects downstream. The Aswan Dam has been particularly affected by increased silting, which has reduced the length of its usefulness to merely a few decades.

The Aswan Dam in upper Egypt was completed in 1970; its inauguration allowed the opening for agriculture of extensive formerly arid lands. Apart from its initial positive impact on agricultural production, however, the dam has had a number of negative effects. One relates to conditions necessary for agriculture on the floodplain downstream

from the dam. Because the dam has reduced the amount of silt reaching the plain, artificial fertilizers are required, increasing costs and affecting the water quality of the river. The newly irrigated soils have also been waterlogged, and salinization of soils and groundwater has become a common problem. Human health was affected by an increase in

schistosomiasis. Construction industries suffered because they depended on a supply of alluvial silt to make bricks.

Brick-makers often compete successfully with farmers for the same land. As a result, traditional farming areas have been reduced along with agricultural production.

The Nile basin is a fragile hydrographic system requiring careful  management. Much coordination will be necessary to ensure that it is used appropriately and sustainably. However, management of such a complex and multinational basin is not merely a scientific endeavour. It encompasses political, social, economic, and historic issues. Only a holistic approach will permit resolution of its long-term problems without conflict and allow its optimum use to improve the quality of life of its population.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is an Ethiopia built dam which is creating some problems with the Egiptian Government.

In fact, Egypt has been at odds with its neighbours over the $4.8bn megaproject, with Cairo fearing that its position downstream may affect its access to water from the Nile River basin, which will feed the dam.

The eventual site for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was identified during a Blue Nile survey conducted between 1956 and 1964. The Ethiopian Government surveyed the site in October 2009 and August 2010. In November 2010, a design for the dam was submitted. On 31 March 2011, a day after the project was made public, a US$4.8 billion contract was awarded without competitive bidding to Salini Conbstruction and the dam's foundation stone was laid on 2 April 2011 by then Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. A rock crushing plant has been constructed along with a small air strip for fast transportation.

The first two generators are expected to become operational after 44 months of construction.

Egypt, which lies downstream, opposes the dam which it believes will reduce the amount of water that it gets from the Nile. Zenawi argued, based on an unnamed study, that the dam would not reduce water availability downstream and would also regulate water for irrigation. In May 2011, it was announced that Ethiopia would share blueprints for the dam with Egypt so the downstream impact could be examined.

The dam was originally called "Project X", and after its contract was announced it was called the Millennium Dam. On 15 April 2011, the Council of Ministers renamed it Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Ethiopia has a potential for around 45,000 MW of hydropower. The dam is being funded by government bonds and private donations. It was slated for completion in July 2017.

The potential impacts of the dam have been the source of severe regional controversy. The Government of Egypt, a country which relies heavily on the waters of the Nile, has demanded that Ethiopia cease construction on the dam as a preconditions to negotiations, sought regional support for its position, and some political leaders have discussed methods to sabotage it. Egypt has planned a diplomatic initiative to undermine support for the dam in the region as well as in other countries supporting the project such as China and Italy

However, other nations in the Nile Basin Initiative have expressed support for the dam, including Sudan, the only other nation downstream of the Blue Nile, which has accused Egypt of inflaming the situation. Ethiopia denies that the dam will have a negative impact on downstream water flows and contends that the dam will in fact increase water flows to Egypt by reducing evaporation on Lake Nasser. It has accused Egypt of being unreasonable; Egypt is demanding to increase its share of the Nile's water flow from 66% to 90%.}+

Partiaolly reproduced from Wikipedia