Idlib: the war deadliest battle

On September 7, a three-way  summit in Tehran failed to produce a clear agreement btween Russia, Turkey and Iran on the fate of Syria's Idlib province, the last stronghold of the Syrian armed opposition.

A ceasefire suggested by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was rejected and a full-fledged government offensive now seems imminent, in what is expected to be Syria's deadliest battle yet.

Idlib is the last barrier standing between the Syrian government and its military victory against a rebellion that began more than seven years ago.

The northwestern province bordering Turkey was one of the four "de-escalation zones" agreed by Ankara, Moscow and Tehran in May 2017 during the fourth round of the Astana talks, launched earlier that year with the aim of pursuing a political solution to Syria's conflict.

One by one, the other three areas - Homs; Eastern Ghouta; and Deraa and Quneitra - have been captured by the Syrian government forces and their allies. As Damascus clawed back opposition-held territory, thousands of civilians and rebel fighters from those areas were bussed to Idlib, dubbed a "dumping ground" for evacuees.

Amid persisting uncertainty, three scenarios are likely to emerge in Idlib: a massive onslaught; a protracted offensive; or infighting between rebels followed by a reconciliation deal with Damascus. But whatever actually occurs, it will be the civilians currently trapped in the densely populated province that will pay the highest price.

What countries are involved and what are their aims?

Five major players are likely to decide what happens next in Idlib: the Syrian government and its allies Iran and Russia, as well as Turkey and the United States.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has repeatedly has vowed to take back "every inch" of Syria, pursuing a "military solution" to the conflict. His goal is to regain complete control in order not to have to make any concessions to the Syrian opposition.

Taking over Idlib would mean that the opposition has no territorial presence and consequently no leverage in any future negotiation process.

In the short-term, the government wants to establish control over two major highways - the M4, which connects the port city of Latakia to Aleppo, Raqqa and oil-rich Deir Az Zor; and M5, which links the capital Damascus to Aleppo, and eventually to the trade route to Turkey and Europe. Iran has no direct strategic interest in Idlib, especially since the completion of an evacuation process the two Shia towns of Foua and Kefraya in July. However, Tehran is backing the offensive with its militias as it shares the same goal with Damascus of eliminating the armed opposition. Iran's military assistance goes hand-in-hand with its efforts to entrench its presence permanently in Syria despite pressure from the US, Israel and Russia to withdraw.Moscow, like Damascus and Tehran, also wants Idlib captured, but it would prefer to have the opposition surrender and integrate into the Syrian military divisions under its control (such as the Fifth division) rather than fight a costly battle. It hopes that the capture of the rebel bastion would force Turkey, the European Union and the US to negotiate a political solution along its goals, as well as give it more leverage in talks on the suspension of US sanctions and a resolution in Ukraine. For its part, Turkey - Idlib's guarantor power under the Astana agreement - is keen to prevent an offensive on the region and maintain some level of control over it. Already hosting over three million Syrians, Turkey fears a major crisis in northwest Syria would further strain its territory. It also wants Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, one of the two main armed group controlling Idlib) dissolved so that Russia has no justification to attack the province. Moscow has designated HTS a terrorist group. At the Tehran summit, the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran expressed different opinions about the way forward in Idlib, but in a joint statement reiterated that the Syrian crisis can reach a final resolution through a "negotiated political process". The US, meanwhile, has no strategic interest in Idlib and has indicated that it does not oppose a limited offensive on Idlib. It also wants the HTS eliminated and has already targeted a number of its leaders through drone attacks. However, Washington has threatened military action if the Syrian government uses chemical weapons. On September 3, US President Donald Trump warned in a post on Twitter that Assad "must not recklessly attack Idlib", adding that it would be "a grave humanitarian mistake" for Moscow and Tehran to "take part in this potential human tragedy". The US worries about Iran's presence in Syria and has demanded that Iranian forces and militias withdraw. The Trump administration, which earlier mulled a withdrawal of its troops from northeast Syria (territory under the control of US-allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces), has now made provisions for their indefinite stay.

It also wants Hay'et Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, one of the two main armed group controlling Idlib) dissolved so that Russia has no justification to attack the province. Moscow has designated HTS a terrorist group.At the Tehran summit, the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran expressed different opinions about the way forward in Idlib, but in a joint statement reiterated that the Syrian crisis can reach a final resolution through a "negotiated political process".The US, meanwhile, has no strategic interest in Idlib and has indicatede that it does not oppose a limited offensive on Idlib. It also wants the HTS eliminated and has already targeted a number of its leaders through drone attacks.However, Washington has threatened military action if the Syrian government uses chemical weapons. On September 3, US President Donald Trump warned in a post on Twitter that Assad "must not recklessly attack Idlib", adding that it would be "a grave humanitarian mistake" for Moscow and Tehran to "take part in this potential human tragedy".The US worries about Iran's presence in Syria and has demanded that Iranian forces and militias withdraw. The Trump administration, which earlier mulled a withdrawal of its troops from northeast Syria (territory under the control of US-allied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces), has now made provisions for their indefinite stay.

by Mariya Petkiova and Farah Najjar