Climate change: facts and fictions

Danilo Anton

In recent years, the theory has spread that climate change is taking place at a global level that would be modifying planetary environmental conditions intensely with serious risks for human civilizations.

This statement does not introduce any new elements. Planetary climates have "changed" throughout geological history, and of course they continue to change. There are numerous sedimentary and fossil testimonies that represent the vestiges of the various climates that have occurred since primitive times. Regarding the type of change that would be taking place and its intensity, I believe that we do not yet have elements to define it. In any case, the changes that have occurred (not yet confirmed) seem small compared to the large climatic changes that occurred in planetary history. The change that is now being identified would be caused by the emission of carbon dioxide from the combustion of hydrocarbons, which would imply an increase in the planetary atmospheric temperature.

At the same time, it is pointed out that, due to said warming, profound climate changes are generated at a global level with melting of the polar ice and a continuous rise in ocean levels, creating a serious threat to coastal areas. This theory has caused widespread alarm at many levels, triggering international political and economic decisions by many governments.

However, when rigorous data are analyzed, this theoretical model does not seem confirmed by reality. In fact, in the meteorological data, such a general increase in temperature does not seem so obvious. We have a set of thermal series located in the most varied geographical locations, excluding data from urbanized areas that would distort the results, which do not show any clear increase in temperature.

The widespread melting of glaciers has not been demonstrated. There are several scientific papers that conclude that neither Antarctica nor Greenland has produced a decrease in frozen volumes.

With regard to sea levels, which are supposed to be rising, something similar happens. There are many uncertainties. The periodic oscillations produced by the tides and winds, as well as the dynamism of the continental blocks that are permanently sinking or rising for various tectonic and geological reasons, prevent obtaining certainty. On the other hand, the figures for the elevation of the oceanic level that are handled would not exceed 2 millimeters per year and the information collected in the low islands of the Pacific tends to show a relative stability of the sea levels in that region.

For its part, the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere, which has been registered in recent decades, is actually not very significant when considering global atmospheric figures (less than two millionths per year), with discrepancies about its effective role as a gas. greenhouse against other factors that seem more important such as the presence of water vapor and condensation in clouds and natural and anthropic aerosols.

In summary, we can say that the temperatures of the atmosphere show increases in urbanized areas (which is a small part of the planetary area) and practically none in the rest of the earth's surface. Neither has a negative balance of the volume of water immobilized as ice in the polar zones been recorded. On the contrary, there are those who maintain, with serious data, that the amount of ice is increasing. The supposed increases in sea levels at a global level have not been demonstrated either, moving away the alarm of alleged catastrophic risks in coastal areas.

In fact, what has been exposed is the persistence of a media campaign, driven by economic and political interests, tending to show that a disaster is approaching for humanity due to the exorbitant consumption of fuels of mineral origin. To avoid making mistakes in the future when making decisions and defining strategies, humanity needs to rely more on the data of science and less on the economic or political conjunctural conveniences.

(blog in Spanish: daniloanton.blogspot.com)

From "Climate change: facts and fictions", Danilo Antón, Piriguazú Ediciones.