The battle of Mariupol in Ukraine, its strategic and geopolitical implications

Everything seems to indicate that this is a battle for a port, for the exit port of a disputed region, it allows the exit of products from a separatist region of Ukraine supported by the Russian government, which the Ukrainian government tries to prevent, maintaining the control of that port-city. The city called Mariupol. And the truth is that if one looks at the map it seems quite strange This port, strategically indicated, is at the bottom of a small sea, shallow, practically closed, which communicates with another larger sea but which is also almost closed, which in turn communicates with another much larger one that, after all, through a strait that is not too wide, allows all the world's oceans to communicate.

Well, now let's clarify what we are talking about.

Mariupol is the port city in question, it formally belongs to Ukraine, located in Donetsk Oblast. It is located on the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov at the confluence of the Kalmius and Kalchyk rivers.

To date, it is an important port and one of the most important centers of Ukrainian and European metallurgy, in Mariupol there are two large iron and steel complexes Ilyich Iron and Steel Works and Azovstal, There are also industrial complexes for machine building, for what was also known as "the steel capital" of Ukraine. In addition, it was an important economic center of Ukraine. There are also shipyards, fish canneries and several educational institutions with specializations in metallurgy and science.

In 2021 Mariupol was estimated to have 431,859 inhabitants

In the city, Russian is the mother tongue of 89.39% of the population; and the Ukrainian 10.1%.6

On the other hand, as we said before, Mariupol is the main port of an important productive region called Donbass, which is an important industrial and coal region of Ukraine with an area of ​​about 53,000 and a population of 6.2 million inhabitants divided into its two constituent provinces, Donetz and Luhansk.

For informational purposes, I point out that Donetsk has 26,517 km2 and 4,100,000 inhabitants and Luhansk 26,684 km2 and 2,100,000. The main cities of both provinces are respectively Donetsk with 900,000 inhabitants and Luhansk with 400,000.

As noted, Mariupol is an important international port on the Sea of ​​Azov and its metallurgical industry contributes to about 7% of the export of Ukrainian goods.

In May 2014, a conflict developed in Mariupol between the new Ukrainian authorities and the pro-Russian Ukrainians who hinted at the separation of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, which obtained 81% of the votes in the referendum on May 10 of that same year Finally, in September 2014, paramilitary troops from an armed body called the Azov Battalion, supporters of the central government, took the city with dead civilians among the supporters of secession. The battalion became headquartered in the city and paid its volunteers $70 a month in 2014.

 It is mostly made up of volunteers from far-right organizations and parties like Pravy Sector, Svoboda and other organizations. This triumph was celebrated annually in a military parade. until 2021

The war broke out due to the Russian invasion of the Ukrainian territory, in order to eliminate the right-wing nationalist government based in kyiv which is the capital of Ukraine.

 The military confrontation began on April 18, 2022 between the Russian armed forces, with the support of the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. It is considered the second strategic phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and is part of the theater of operations of the Offensive in eastern Ukraine, which includes the outer Donbass areas.

Now we will insist on the strategic value of the city of Mariupol. That as I said before generated some doubts in me.

As I said, Mariupol is an important port on the Sea of ​​Azov, which is a relatively small marine extension of 39,000 km2 and shallow with an average depth of 13 m. Azov is separated from the Black Sea by the Kerch Peninsula in Crimea and the Taman Peninsula in Russian territory.

It communicates with this sea (the Black Sea) through the 42 km Kerch Strait. Distance

From Mariupol to Kerch is 200 km.

As of the incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Federation, this strait was practically in the hands of Russia and in 2018 it built an 18 km bridge. that communicates Crimea (occupied by Russia) with the proper Russian territory.

So to leave Mariupol the boats must first travel through the shallow Sea of ​​Azov for 200 km and then enter the Black Sea which has 436,000 km for 720 km until reaching Istanbul in the Bosporus Strait. The Black Sea is an international sea but its outlet to the Mediterranean Sea must be through the Bosporus Strait controlled by Turkey where the city of Istanbul is located.

Then you have to go 350 km through the Sea of ​​Marmara which is also surrounded by Turkey and then another 700 km through the Aegean Sea which is dotted with Greek islands, and finally from the southern Aegean Sea to Gibraltar in the far west, there are other 3,000 km. So you have to travel a total of 4970 (5,000 km) to leave Mariupol to the world's oceans.

And this itinerary includes a strait dominated by Russia, another by Turkey and a sea (the Aegean) covered with islands under Greek sovereignty, adding vulnerabilities to the journey.

We do not know the outcome of the battle of Mariupol, but it is considered that its fall could be the antecedent of the effective separation of Ukraine from the Donbass provinces.