For some time, and as an impartial observer of some of the main scientific paradigms of the last decades, I tried to analyze these ideas in light of my experiences and knowledge.
As we all know, scientific knowledge is relative. What is accepted today as a great
truth, tomorrow will be disproved by other "truths", and what is more
forceful, by the actual data of reality.
A paradigm that prevailed in the last 25 years is that
climate warming is occurring, and that the cause of it is human action through
the combustion of hydrocarbons, which has been called (with an appellation at
less doubtful) "fossil fuels".
It has logic. The need or greed, has led to use the available hydrocarbons in the
crust (oil, coal, natural gas, etc.) to provide energy to industries, homes,
cars, railways, ships and other technological means typical of globalized
industrial societies .
Due to
uncontrolled consumption enormous amounts of carbon dioxide are generated, that
gradually accumulate in the atmosphere producing a greenhouse effect, which in
turn increases the temperature,`producing a climate change, which, according to
this "very logical" approach, is the fault of human beings ( or
"man" if we use the dominant patriarchal terminology).
It is all very logical. However, reality is stubborn. The
concrete data (raw, NOT modified) show that this reasoning fails in several
aspects.
In the first place, as all geologists know, talking about
climate change is equivalent to saying nothing. On Earth, climates have changed
throughout their history. In
different times and places there have been, hot, humid, arid, cold climates,
glacial ages, etc. In successive geological periods there are numerous rock
formations that bear witness to them. Therefore, talking about
"climate change" is like saying nothing new.
Regarding
the terminology also used, although to a lesser degree, there is talk of global
warming, of melting of the Antarctic, of a rise in the level of the oceans, of tropicalization
of temperate climates, of increase in the number of hurricanes and other
analogous phenomena which would be (is stated) the result of this “warming” that
is predicted.
On each of
these phenomena there are contradictory data. To begin with, it is very
difficult to demonstrate warming with traditional methods of measuring
temperature (meteorological stations of heterogeneous distribution that tend to
measure predominantly the influence of urban islands). The temperature of the
oceans, has shown to have periodic variations, and in the last years NO
generalized warming has been appreciated. Neither measurements of the satellites
have been conclusive. The temperature of the lower atmosphere has not increased
significantly.
As for CO2, it is noteworthy that the content of the
atmosphere of this gas is very small, just 0.04%. Since plants (the sustenance of all life
on the planet) require CO2 to carry out their metabolism, their increase, which
currently is of the order of 0.0001% per year, has the main effect of helping
the growth of plant ecosystems (such as jungles, meadows or algae formations).
Regarding C02 as a "greenhouse" gas, it does not
seem to have any influence when compared to the greenhouse effect of water
vapor (much more abundant and with more intense effect) and above all with the
influence of variations in solar radiation (which is, absolutely, and almost entirely, the main source of atmospheric energy).
For these
reasons, it is unlikely that the tiny increases in CO2 in the atmosphere can
have an effect on the global temperature, and, on the contrary its main effects
ARE POSITIVE, that is, the increase in the productivity of plant ecosystems.
Of course,
this is not important for the global powers, who are not interested in
scientific truth (of course, beyond their speeches). For them the data of
reality are irrelevant.
This
includes, of course, the academic authorities (who can not deviate from the
paradigm under penalty of losing their grants or tenures), political leaders
(who do not know much about the issue and try to accommodate their claims to
what is expected of them from the point of view of convenience) and business
leaders (who in general manage to extract profits from any prevailing paradigm,
whatever it may be).
And on the
other side there are the heretics. Those who analyze the facts of reality
without prejudices or preconceptions. Fortunately, in this globalized world there are many
heretical scientists and individuals.
Of course,
those who disagree with the absurd idea of climate change do not have good
press. They are criticized as unscientific, and of course, always criticizing
them without taking the discussion to the grounds of the arguments.
In fact, what
happens is that the heretics have (myself included) many doubts.
There is
no certainty that global warming is taking place in the atmosphere (data
are not conclusive), there is no certainty that the inlandsis of Antarctica and
Greenland are melting. Rise of ocean levels are very slow (a couple of
millimeters per year) and may be the result of geological inertia after recent geological
deglaciation.
Things are NOT clear.
When there
is uncertainty about the processes, hasty political (and economic) decisions
can be double-edged swords.
It is not reasonable to dogmatize the arguments. Do not
forget that to a large extent the scientific advances of humanity were the
result of the ideas and discoveries of the great heretics. Copernicus, Galileo,
Newton, Lamark, Darwin and many others have allowed us to reach new
milestones in human knowledge that can serve as illustrative examples.
Dogmas are not good for the advancement of science.
Danilo Anton
Danilo Anton


No comments:
Post a Comment