Abiogenic petroleum: the rule of Kudryavtsev

One of the main defenders of the abiogenic theory was the Russian geologist Nikolai Kudryavtsev.

He argued that no petroleum resembling the chemical composition of natural crudes has ever been made from plant material in the laboratory under conditions resembling those in nature.

He gave many examples of substantial and sometimes commercial quantities of petroleum being found in crystalline or metamorphic basements, or in sediments directly overlying those. He cited cases in Kansas, California, Western Venezuela and Morocco.also pointed out that oil pools in sedimentary strata are often related to fractures in the basement directly below.

Kudryavtsev stated in 1973 that any region in which hydrocarbons are found at one level will also have hydrocarbons in large or small quantities at all levels down to and into the basement rock. 

This phenomenon is called “the Rule of Kudryavtsev”.

According to this rule where oil and gas deposits are found, there will often be coal seams above them.

Gas is usually the deepest in the pattern, and can alternate with oil. All petroleum deposits have a capstone, which is generally impermeable to the upward migration of hydrocarbons. This capstone leads to the accumulation of the hydrocarbon.

This is evidenced by the Ghawar supergiant oil field (Saudi Arabia), the Panhandle Field in Kansas, which also produces helium; the Tengiz Field of Kazakhstan;White Tiger Field (Vietnam) and innumerable others. The Lost Soldier Field in Wyoming has oil pools, he stated, at every horizon of the geological section, from the Cambrian sandstone overlying the basement to the Upper Cretaceous deposits. A flow of oil was also obtained from the basement itself. Hydrocarbon gases, he noted, are not rare in igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Canadian Shield. Petroleum in Precambrian gneiss is encountered in wells on the eastern shore of Lake Baikal. Kudryavtsev concluded that commercial accumulations are simply found where permeable zones are overlaid by impermeable ones.

Reference:

Kudryavtsev N.A., 1973. Genesis of oil and gas. - Leningrad, Nedra Press. - 216 p. (in Russian)

Information from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Kudryavtsev

Recharge of petroleum fields

Danilo Anton

In the orthodox biogenic theory of the origin of petroleum, oil fields can be exploited to a certain extent, past which they might be depleted and recovery is not expected.

For that reason, "exhausted" fields are abandoned and prospectors search for deposits elsewhere.

According to this approach, sooner or later all oil fields will eventually run out.

However, following the abiogenic theory most oil fields will  not be exhausted forever. In fact, although wells and fields may lose pressure (when extraction is too fast and their exploitation may cease to have commercial interest) the wells may become exploitable again if they are allowed to rest long enough. In those cases the rise of hydrocarbons from deeper levels would allow the recovery of both wells and reservoirs.

For this reason, the calculations of "probable reserves" or "proved reserves" can be without foundation, since the conceptual model on which they are based may not not correct.

When calculating the time that a reservoir will last, according to the so-called "reserves", a very important variable is left aside: the recoverability of the oil or gas fields due to the migration of hydrocarbons from the lower or lateral layers.

Reservoir recharge cases are numerous. They have been observed in Abu Dhabi and elsewhere in the Middle East, in the deep wells of Oklahoma, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and elsewhere.

The production estimates of the wells are generally erroneous because there is recharge from depth during production period. Every few years, reserves should be recalculated because the orthodox theory has misinterpreted the geological mechanisms that allow the formation of oil and gas.

The prediction of the 1970s was that oil would end in 1987. However, not only it did not end then but the alleged reserves have increased considerably.

Thomas Gold points out that recharging is an issue of enormous economic significance and of great engineering importance, because if this fact was accepted, some control over the recharging process could be achieved.

The problem is, again, the lack of understanding of the dynamics of the planetary degassing process. If we accept the fact, well known at this time, that hydrocarbons are a common constituent in the cosmos, and that evolving planets undergo degassing processes, we can better understand and therefore predict the future availability of hydrocarbons worldwide .

If we recognize that there are huge amounts of hydrocarbons or their constituent atoms in the interior of the Earth (as indicated by the composition of other planets, comets and meteorites) then we should consider the possibility that the source of hydrocarbons is in the mantle and that therefore the recharge comes from these deep levels.

From: "Unexhaustible? Gas and Petroleum", Danilo Anton, Piriguazú Ediciones.

Origin of oil, natural gas and carbonates

D.Anton
There are two main theories about the origin of the carbon compounds on the planet Earth. These compounds are diverse but predominantly expressed in the oxidized compounds (p.ej.el carbon dioxide and carbonates) and non-oxidized compounds (e.g. hydrocarbons). A majority hypothesis currently holds that carbon compounds originally come from a very rich atmosphere of carbon dioxide, while another theory considers these compounds originated deep in the crust and upper mantle and then rose in a slow and widespread degassing process.
Here we transcribe a text of "The Deep Hot Biosphere" by Thomas Gold (2001)

"According to the first theory on the earth 's near-surface enrichment in carbon, the initial blanket of carbon dioxide in the earth  atmosphere would have to have been very substantial . The figure implied  by the mass of carbonate rock would require a mass of carbon dioxide in the early atmosphere about  eighty times greater than the whole of our planet atmosphere and about as massive as that of our  sister planet Venus. In contrast, today's proportion of carbon dioxide in the earth's  atmosphere  is only 3.5 parts per ten thousand  by volume.

However, there is good reason to believe that the early earth did not acquire much material in the form of gases, because there is a very low abundance of gases such as neon, non-radiogenic argon, krypton, and xenon in the atmosphere today. No physical processcould have sorted out these inert gases from the solar system's gaseous mix,  where they are known to be consideerably more abundant. And because all these inert gases are heavy atoms, they would not have escaped the earth's gravity and drifted offf into space at a greater rate than other gaseous elements.
The only sound explanation, in my view, is that atmospheric gases have derived mainly from outgassing of volatiles derived at depth from buried solid materials- not from an initial large artmosphere acquired at the earth's formation or by later capture of gases from space.
The theory that the earth started out with a massive CO2, atmosphere fails in yet another way.-the pattern of carbonate rock deposition  through geological time does not support it.
Rather than a skewing of carbonate deposition to earlier times, the sedimentary records show a rather continuous accumulaton of such oxidized carbon, as well as unoxidized carbon over the last two billion years, which is the period of time over which the sedimentary record  is usefully intact. Indeed, the total carbon excess of the surface layers is clearly shown to have been increasing  since early times. Recycling cannot account for that. Rather a continuous addition drawn from sources upwelling  from within the earth must be held responsible.
Strangely, although most of the oxidized carbon that is in the carbonate deposits is derived from the atmospheric-ocenic pool  of carbon dioxide, the present content of carbon in this pool represents only about onepart in 740 of the known deposited amounts  (using the estimated total deposited carbon over thecourse of two billion years  and the measured cO2 content of atmosphere and oceans). What is the origin of the supply that maintains atmospheric CO2 at levels that result in the deposition ofcarbonates through all geological epochs and that maintains a supply ratesufficiently constant to keep plants alive?

If outgassing of carbon-containing volatiles from the depths of the earth were responsible, what mean rate of outflow would be implied?  Using the figures presented above, this global average rate of outgassing would have to be sufficient to replace the amount equal  to the present atmospheric-oceanic content ofcarbon dioxide every 2.7 million years. In other words, the carbon must have been replaced in those surface reservoirs 740 times in two billiion years.
As already mentioned, the chemistry of meteorites indicates that carbonates or other forms of oxidized carbon were not constituents of the materuals that formed the solid planets. Most of the carbon was initially in unoxidized form, primarily as hydrocarbons. The evidence from deep boreholes that are not too close  to active volcanic regions shows, in accordance with the meteorite evidence, that  hydrocarbons are the dominant carbon-bearing fluids there. At still deeper levels, where the pressure is so great that damonds are the stable form of carbon, unoxidized  carbon again evidently dominates and formss these crystals of pure carbon.
Some fraction of these upwelling carbon fluids, starting out largely in the form of CH4 and other light hydrocarbon molecules , will be oxidized  during the ascent.  The oxygen availabillity from the rocks, the temperature and pressure along the pathways of flow, and the action of subsurface microbial life will deteermine the ration of methane to carbon dioxide emerging from the ground
in any one region. Any methane that reaches the atmosphere without being oxidized to carbon dioxide in the oxygen-rich atmosphere and there join the pool of atmospheric-oceanic CO2. What fraction of all the upwelling carbon upwelling carbon volatiles would be delivered to the atmosphere as methane, and what fraction as carbon dioxide?
 The carbon dioxide coming from volcanoes is well studied , whereas the large quantities of methane that emerge from non-volcanic ground go mostly unnoticed. The (superficial) impression created by this is that carbon dioxide is the principal source of the source of the surface carbon excess, and that it also the main carbon-bearing gas in the ground.
An analysis of the isotopes of carbon, however, reveals an error in this dominan tivew. The study of the isotopes of carbon is a large and complex field. I will mention here only one aspect tthat bears directly on the subject  under discussion, but even that is necessarily rather technical. It has to be addressed becausethere hasbeen much debate about its interpretation and insignificance.
(to be continued)

The false paradigm of fossil fuels resists in spite of repeated contradictory evidences

D.Anton

The fossil fuel theory is difficult to debunk. Everyday there are new data showing that in the Earth and in the planetary bodies of the Solar System methane IS NOT biological. In the Earth there are some biological sources of methane related, for instance, to swamps, but they are, compared with astronomical and planetary sources, very tiny.
This is obvious, but the paradigm survives. The following article from The Economist shows that even with constantly appearing new information the author does not dare to say it, 

Most, practically ALL methane contribution to the Earth atmosphere comes from deep crust and mantle geological levels.  

Fuel, loose and fossil-free

An unexpected source of methane just keeps popping up

EARLY two millennia ago, Pliny the Elder, a Roman chronicler of natural history, spotted flames seeping from bare rock at a site that is probably Yanartas, in modern Turkey. It was an extraordinary find, though not for reasons that Pliny could have guessed. The gas that fuelled the flames, and fuels them still today, comes from a source that geologists would once have decried as implausible, if not altogether impossible. But that source is turning out to be a significant one. The overwhelming majority of the methane extracted commercially and 90% of what is in the air is biotic—that is to say, it comes from the decomposition of the stuff of life. However, natural gas can also form abiotically, as a result of chemical reactions in a kind of volcanic rock called peridotite. 

Add to such rock the heat and pressures of depth, throw in a splash of water, and eventually out comes methane. But it is not just explaining away fires on Earth that is of interest; serpentinization, as this process is called, was invoked to account for plumes of methane spotted by orbiters around Mars that might otherwise have been indicative of life (such methane plumes are now in doubt). Well-understood as the phenomenon is, however, such "seeps" of abiotic methane were until recently believed to be an exceptionally rare thing: between Pliny's observations in 77AD and 2012, only three more were discovered. That view is now changing. In 2013 and so far in 2014, a further five abiotic gas seeps have been reported—in Portugal, Greece, Italy, Japan and another in Turkey. The man behind many of these finds is Giuseppe Etiope of the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, in Rome. Together with colleagues in Canada and Spain, Dr Etiope has discovered two more abiotic seeps that the team will report in December, at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. With the addition of these two sites, in Spain and the UAE, the number of known abiotic seeps has more than doubled since the beginning of 2013. Six more, from Europe to North and Central America to the South Pacific, are currently being analysed for suspected abiotic origins. It is not that the world is springing an abiotic methane leak, however. The recent spate of discoveries can be ascribed in part to advances in technology—a new generation of sensors in wide use can measure the flow of methane on diverse sites—and to growing scientific interest in the details of serpentinization.

What started as geochemistry curiosity could yet have economic implications as the number of abiotic seeps—which have never been commercially exploited—rises further. Based on geological similarities with existing sites, Dr Etiope strongly suspects that there may be more in Cyprus and Bosnia. A similar hunch prompted the search for the seeps that were discovered in Spain and the UAE. Dr Etiope has received research funding from Petrobras, Brazil's state-owned oil giant, to formulate an estimate for the worldwide abiotic methane reserve. He reckons that it will take at least a year to arrive at even a rough guess. But Pliny may finally be of some help here. Given the well-dated observation of the fires at Yanartas and a good estimate of how much methane is required to keep them going, Dr Etiope believes the seep has expelled some 400m cubic metres since then—comparable to the output of some conventional gas fields.

That is likely to be an underestimate; presumably, it had been going for a while before Pliny showed up. As a newly appreciated potential source of gas, it will take some time to understand just hny abiotic seeps there are, and how much methane each might produce. The general view of hydrocarbons such as oil and gas is one of dwindling reserves. But there is still some exploring to be done.

Oct 22nd 2014 |  The Economist, Science and Technology

Methane bubbling through seafloor creates undersea hills

Methane surging from oceanic seafloors and volcanic eruptions is commonplace.  In its rise it may be oxidized in carbon dioxide. These phonomena are evidence of the widespread ascension of methane all over the world. The abiotic theory on the origin of petroleum argues that the surge of methane is the main source of most (perhaps all) hydrocarbon accumulations, and of course, productive oilfields. The theory of "fossil fuels" continue to be debunked.

D.A.

Methane bubbling through seafloor creates undersea hills from Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

5 February 2007

According to a recent paper published by MBARI geologists and their colleagues, methane gas bubbling through seafloor sediments has created hundreds of low hills on the floor of the Arctic Ocean. These enigmatic features, which can grow up to 40 meters (130 feet) tall and several hundred meters across, have puzzled scientists ever since they were first discovered in the 1940s.

This conceptual drawing (not to scale) shows Paull's hypothesis that methane gas from deep hydrate deposits could push sediment up from below the ocean bottom to create a pingo-like feature. The gray lines in the background are from a seismic profile through one of these enigmatic features.Image: (c) 2007 MBARI

Writing in the January issue of Geophysical Research Letters, MBARI geologists Charlie Paull and William Ussler and their coauthors described the results offield work they conducted on the Beaufort Sea Shelf, offshore of the north coast of Canada. In this area of year-round sea ice and permafrost, the team spent over a month mapping the seafloor and collecting sediment cores and gas samples from these underwater hills, which they call "pingo-like features."

This study took place in the Beaufort Sea, far above the Arctic Circle, off the north coast of Canada. For a closer view of the study area (outlined in red) see the illustration at right.Image: (c) 2007 MBARI	The red dots on this map show a few of the hundreds of undersea hills ("pingo-like features") in the Beaufort Sea. Many terrestrial pingos are located on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, just below the red dots.Image: (c) 2007 MBARI

"Pingos," small, dome-shaped, ice-cored hills, are found in many Arctic regions. "Pingo-like features" are similar in shape and size to pingos on land, but are found underwater, on the continental shelf in several parts of the Arctic. Previous studies have suggested that pingo-like features are pingos that formed on land but were submerged when sea level rose following the end of the last ice age, over 10,000 years ago.

Based on their geologic fieldwork and subsequent chemical analysis of the gas and sediments from eight pingo-like features, Paull and his coauthors propose an alternative hypothesis: Pingo-like features form when methane hydrate (a frozen mixture of gas and seawater) decomposes beneath the seafloor, releasing gas that squeezes deep sediments up onto the seafloor like toothpaste from a tube.

Although methane hydrates are not stable at the seafloor in the area of this study, they do appear on the seafloor in some deeper areas. These hydrates are exposed on the seafloor off the coast of British Columbia. Pure methane hydrates are white, but these contain hydrocarbons that give them a yellowish or brownish cast.Image: (c) 2006 MBARI

The geologists based this hypothesis on a number of observations and measurements. First, sound waves bounced through the pingo-like features showed that they were not built up from layers, but consist of a jumbled mixture of sediment and small nodules of fresh-water (rather than salt-water) ice. Carbon-14 dating of organic matter in the sediment at the crests of several hills showed that this sediment was deposited before the last ice age, thousands of years before sediments on the surrounding seafloor. Finally, many of the pingo-like features were surrounded by shallow "moats," where the seafloor within a kilometer of the hill had apparently subsided.

Even with evidence that pingo-like features were made of older, deeper sediment that had been pushed up from beneath the seafloor, the geologists still had to figure out what geologic process could generate enough pressure to lift seafloor sediments. The most obvious source of such pressure was methane gas, which the researchers observed bubbling out of the tops of several pingo-like features.

Researchers tried several methods for collecting methane gas that bubbles up from pingo-like features into the frigid waters of the Arctic Ocean. Image: (c) 2003 Charlie Paull

After chemically analyzing this gas, the researchers concluded that it originated as methane hydrate, an ice-like mixture of water and methane that forms within sediments under much of the Arctic seafloor and beneath permafrost areas on land. Methane hydrate can only remain solid at low temperatures and high pressures. Such conditions exist several hundred meters below the seafloor in this part of the Arctic Ocean.

The researchers suggested that such buried hydrates might be decomposing and releasing large amounts of methane gas. This seemed possible because the seafloor in this area has been gradually warming over the last 10,000 years, after being flooded as sea levels rose at the end of the last ice age. Although within a few degrees of freezing, the seawater in this region is at least 10 degrees Centigrade (20 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than permafrost-filled soil. Thus, when the ice sheets from the last ice age melted and the ocean flooded the continental shelves, it caused the seafloor sediment to become warmer.

Over thousands of years, the scientists believe, this "wave" of warming moved downward through the sediment. Eventually it reached the frozen methane hydrates, hundreds of meters down. Even a slight temperature increase could have caused some of the buried methane hydrates to decompose, releasing methane into the surrounding sediments.

Sediment cores collected from the floor of the Arctic Ocean helped the research team understand more about the history of this remote ocean basin. The snow on the deck of the ship is a reminder of the challenges that scientists face in Arctic research.Image: (c) 2003 Charlie Paull

Paull and Ussler's data suggest that this newly released methane migrated sideways under the seafloor, held in place by an impermeable layer of frozen soil that lies between the hydrates and the seafloor. Eventually it collected and moved toward the surface along faults or in other areas where the sediments were relatively weak.

Eventually the extruded sediment collected to form the low undersea hills visible on bathymetric charts. At the same time, areas on either side of the mounds, where much of the gas and sediment originated, slowly collapsed, forming the deeper "moats" observed by the researchers.

According to Paull, "We don't know if this gas and sediment was burped up in a single year, or moved slowly like a glacier." In either case, Paull's data suggest that pingo-like features are growing in response to warming that started thousands of years ago. Thus, their growth is not a result of human-induced global warming. However, Paull's research does show that pingo-like features are still growing and releasing methane today.

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas, climate scientists would like to know how much is bubbling up from the seafloor worldwide. Future research on methane hydrates and pingo-like features may help address this question. As Paull phrased it, "Pingo-like features are one of the places where we see methane coming up through the seafloor. As yet we don't know how important they are, since we don't know how much gas is coming up in the Arctic as a whole or in other seafloor areas."

This study also provides scientists with clues to how buried methane hydrate deposits might behave in other parts of the world in response to global warming. According to Paull, "One of the questions we're trying to answer is 'What do buried hydrates do when they are suddenly warmed up?' In this case, we have a field experiment that's been going on for thousands of years."

http://www3.mbari.org/news/news_releases/2007/paull-plfs.html

For more information read the book: "Unexhaustable? Oil and natural gas",  D.Antón, Piriguazu Ediciones.

Are oil wells being refilled from below?  Almost unexhaustible petroleum abiotic theory.

From "The Deep Hot Biosphere", Thomas Gold.

"When a new oil or gas field is explored, an observation is routinely made of a drop in pressure resulting from a given volume of production. Measurement of this change is used to estimate the total volume accessible to the wellbore. Aggregate worldwide, these estimates of reserves drive petroleum exploration, and to some extent, the economic outlook for industrial nations. But it has turned out that such estimates are nearly always much lower than actual production over the course of many years.. This dire prediction profoundly affected the price of petroleum– and through that, the distribution of wealth among nations.

Under the abiogenic theory, if oil and gas are flowing upward from deep (and thus high pressure) levels, their travels cannot be arrested by any caprock, however competent the rock may be.

No rock has a significant tensile strength, so no rock can hold down a fluid that comes up with a pressure greater than that exerted by the weight of the overburden. A caprock will create a concentration of the fluids below it, but the steady flow rate will eventually be reestablished at a value equal to the flow rate at the deep source. The flow throough a caprock obstruction is thus, like that of a river crossed by a dam. The dam causes a lake to form on the upstream side, but after the lake has filled, the flow rate resumes. The same amoount of water will flow over the dam, as the river carried before tha dam was built.

If oil and gas have indeed come up from below, we can expect a vertical series of deeper reservoirs to be stacked below the producing field. If, now, the uppemost domain has its fluid pressure decreased by production of oil and gas, then the pressure differential accross the crussed layer of low permeability will automatically increase. Transport of fluid through that layer will, therefore, accelerate. The top field will be replenished at a rate given by the leakage from below, when the delicate pressure balance between rock and fluid has been changed. The top field will be drawing on the deepeer reserves that have not been accessed directly. In the course of time, at a slow rate given by creep deformation in the rock, the stepwise pressure pattern will adjust its levels to the new pressure situation.

In other words, without drilling any deeper, we can nevertheless tap into the deeper reserves that may well be much larger than the reservoir under production.

The phenomenon of petroleum reservoirs that seem to refill themselves is widely reported, notably in theMiddle East and along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I regard these occurrences as strong evidence for the deepearth gas theory."    (Thomas Gold, 2001, Copernicus Books)

More information in the book "Unexhaustible? Petroleum and Natural Gas", D.Anton, Piriguazu Ediciones.

Do natural gas and oil are inexhaustible? 

A revolutionary geological theory that fits the facts of reality
D.Anton
Thomas Gold theory about the origin of oil and natural gas represents a profound change of paradigm. In the mantle of the Earth, maybe at about 200-400 kilometers below the surface the conditions for the formation of methane (CH4) are given. Because methane is less dense it tends to rise when fractures form in the overlying rocky cover.

It is a slow process that can take millions of years (even hundreds of millions) until it approaches the surface. In its rise methane is oxidized. This oxidation takes place taking oxygen from iron oxides (hematite), sulphates (anhydrite) and other oxygenated salts and oxides. Hydrogen is converted into H2O (water) and carbon into CO2 (carbon dioxide). Hydrogen is more easily oxidized so that carbon becomes more concentrated, CH4 turns into C2H6 (ethane), which in turn becomes C3H8 (propane), which turns into C4H10 (butane), and so on, until liquid hydrocarbons (eg naphthas) are formed. The process continues and viscous fluids (tar and bitumen) form followed by solid compounds (lignite, hard coal and anthracite).
This process occurs naturally but at shallower levels (less than 10 km) the metabolic action of hipertermobacterias accelerate it. These bacteria live in the pores of rocks at high pressures and temperatures of 100 degrees Celsius or higher.

The oxidation of metal sulfides generally metal sulfates which are transported by the carbonaceous fluids until precipitate to form metal deposits (eg lead sulphide-galena, iron-pyrite, copper-chalcopyrite, zinc-blende, etc.) .
In their rise hydrocarbons may be retained by rocky mantles or impermeable layers leading to its accumulation forming oil and/or gas deposits.
Thomas Gold offsets orthodox theories, he contends that hydrocarbon deposits are of mineral (abiotic) origin with some bacterial collaboration (but it is not fossil) and many metal deposits are of biotic origin.
According to Gold existing volumes of oil and gas are much more abundant than is generally held (the fall in prices shows in the facts that there is oversupply which in turn is related to hydrocarbon abundance).
Orthodox scientists have a problem: they will have to redesign their hydrocarbon search and exploitation strategies, and of course, rewrite their books. Logically, they oppose that, as often happens in any abrupt change of paradigm. But as usual, the reality is finally imposed and, eventually, the theory of fossil oil (for me an absurd scientific idea) that is supported by the vast majority of geologists, engineers, academics, bureaucrats and politicians, like so many other falsehoods, in the end will collapse.
(To supplement information on this topic should read the book by Thomas Gold, "The Deep Hot Biosphere" or a summarizad version which I published some time ago entitled "Inexhaustible? Petroleum and Natural Gas" D.Anton, 2006, Piriguazú Ediciones).

Slump in oil prices

Oil prices are not related with its middle and long term availabillity

D.Anton

Rollercoster petroleum prices, oversupply,  wars, geopolitical issues, speculation and short term unpredictability

When the chart of mean oil prices is analyzed it is clear that the pricing trends do not relate with exhaustion of oil fields. The variations are such that other causes should be considered. One important cause was the agreement of oil exporting countries to limit production in 1973. The price of the barril rose from US$ dollars 19 to 50 (March 1974) in less than one year. However, six years later (March 1980) rose again to 115 dollars, probably in relation with the war between Iran and Iraq, The rollercoster continued, in 1986 the price went down to 28.08 dollars (oversupply?) and up again in May 2008 to 145.31 dollars A number of events occurredmm, Venezuela cutted sales to Exxon Mobil, two main pipelines were blown up in Iraq, strikes of oil workers in Nigeria and Scotland, etc. However, these facts do no explain completely the acute drop in prices. Most probably the speculation played a more important role.

Eight months later in February 2009 prices fell to 44 dollars (probably again because of oversupply led by the huge production of Saudi Arabian oil fields).

After two years it increased to 109 dollars remaining high up to December 2013 (103 dollars). The last drop took place during 2014 and 2015 (linked to production of shale oils in Uniiter States and Canada) reaching 29 dollars in January 2016.

As it can be seen it is difficult to predict future prices due to the dramatic changes in short periods of time.

There are many factors that influence this variations. Some we mentioned already: oversupply, decrease in production in high production countries due to wars, strikes, political situations, etc,

And of course the everpresent specuation manoeuvres.

In the background, there is always something we can define as a “ghost”, a peermanent threat in the immediate or no so immediatefuture. It is a threat not confirmed in practice that oll fields will be exhausted in the future. It is argued that, because they are “fossil” fuels they can be found ONLY in sedimentary basins. And sedimentary basins average only 1/20000 of the diameter of the Earth.

Because, according to the biotic hypothesis, hydrocarbons are not found in all sedimentary formations, and when they are they are contained only in the pores or voids in sedimentary basins they probably would represent less than 1/1,000 of all mass contained in sedimentary formations and therefore less (or much less) than 1/10,000,000. of the Earth mass.

However, according to the abiotic hydrocarbons are much more abundant. If we compare the Earth with other planets, satellites, comets and meteorites, we may assume that hydrocarbons can at least be 1/100 of the Earth mass and probably much more (up to 10/1000). This means that, even acceping low porosity levels, the petroleum and gas contained in the Earth crust and upper mantle (not counting the lower mantle and nucleus), could reach up to 1/1,000 to 1/10,000 the mass of the Earth.

Conclusion: according to the theory of mineral origin of hydrocarbons there are much, much more oil and gas than the “fossil” theory accepts.

Those levels are enough to keep supplied humankind for several millennia. For sure that in less time the technology will change and hydrocarbons utilization may become totally different. From the point of view of hydrocarbons as sources of energy we can safely state that oil and gas are unexhaustible.

Danilo Anton, in "Unexhaustible, Petroleum and Gas", Second Edition.

The Fossil fuel theory a fraud

 Russians and NASA discredit "Fossil fuel" theory; demise of junk CO2 science

Published on November 12, 2014 in Principio Scientific International

Last week new NASA photographs proved methane lakes exist on Saturn’s moon, Titan, showing that such hydrocarbons (or so-called ‘fossil fuels’) are seemingly plentiful in our solar system.  This startling discovery turns on its head the long-held western belief that petroleum is a limited resource, because it is primarily derived (we had been told) from the fossilized remains of dead dinosaurs and rotted carbon-based vegetation. But with that notion now exploded in the article  

Thanks to NASA’s Cassini spacecraft, energy scientists are now compelled to admit that petroleum oil is, in fact, substantially mineral in origin and occuring all through the galaxies. Two Years ago it was reported that the Max Planck Institute, Germany have discovered that the Horse Head Nebula galaxy in the Orion constellation contains a vast field of hydrocarbons. As such, long-held fears about Earth’s shrinking ‘fossil fuel’ reserves may be bogus.   These important new cosmological discoveries come coincidentally at a time when huge succeses in American oil drilling technology (‘frakking‘) are bringing a glut of oil onto the energy markets, causing a slide in global oil prices. Fresh oil reserves are being struck all over – some miles beneath the oceans, where Dino the dinosaur never roamed. (see image of Methane sea in Saturnian moon Titan).

http://principia-scientific.org/russians-nasa-discredit-fossil-fuel-theory-demise-of-junk-co2-science/