Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Who benefits from the battle of Mosul

Reflections on the ever-worsening violent battle of Mosul.
Danilo Anton


"Liberating"  Mosul control from the hands of the cruel and sadistic ISIL (Islamic Army of Iraq and Levant).
In this offensive, nobody, and I mean nobody, wants to miss the possible territorial and political rewards that can be obtained after the capture of the city.  In short, those who hope to benefit are:
1) The government of Iraq, predominantly Shiite, trying to regain control of Iraqi territory. This government is very weak because of what is left after the clumsy and bloody invasion of the US and its closest allies (UK, Aznar's Spain, and the oil kingdoms).
2) The Kurds, stateless people, who already have an oil-rich territory based in Erbil and they are looking to extend their enclave. With its powerful army of Peshmerga, including women, they have become a difficult power to challenge. They already control Kirkuk (where Kurds are not the majority) and aspire to extend their territory to the banks of the Tigris River (where the city of Mosul is located).
3) Iran, which has great influence on the Iraq government itself in shiite Iraq and controls various Shiite paramilitary groups involved in the battle.
4) US and its allies that bombard with little precision but want to maintain their influence. The US and its allies support the Kurds and Iraqi government and have a limited presence on the ground. Its main benefit is to sell weapons.
5) Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies who financed Al Qaeda and ISIL and are now funding the "rebel" jihadists in Syria. They are present trying to avoid the growing influence of Iran and the Shiites.
6) Turkey, which is between a rock and a hard place. It started participating in the battles but risks that the strengthening of the Kurds may affect their control of their own Kurdish provinces in the southeast of the country.
7) Russia, which is embarking on the war in Syria, defending the Assad government and its port facilities in Tartus. Russia has a strategic alliance with Iran, "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" and considers this battle an opportunity to eliminate jihadism in Syria and in their own territory (p. Ej..en Chechnya). 

8) The interests of corporations producing weapons in the US who can sell their products.
9) Israel, which covertly tried to help promote jihadism in Syria (against the Assad government) observes with satisfaction as the Arab states weaken each other by fighting.
10) Al Qaeda and other Sunni jihadist organizations that will benefit from the defeat of their opponent within Islamic fundamentalism. Many fighters will end up moving to these groups already present in Syria, Iraq, Libya and other Arab and/or Muslim countries.
The main losers in this battle, as in other wars that develop in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Libya, are civilians who are the victims. Hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries, destruction, incalculable and irreparable economic losses. Despite the blood, the war continues.
More info on the book "Land of little rain and plenty of blood," D.Antón, Piriguazú Editions, claim in
dantonster@gmail.com

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