World War III?  

A single stupid mistake in Syria may trigger a global conflict

D.Anton

Russian free access to international seas and oceans is a complex issue. There are Russian ports in the Baltic sea (Kaliningrad, Primorsk, Saint Petersburg) but sailing out of the Baltic sea requires going through the Danish straits which are relatively narrow (width less than 30 km) between the Danish islands and Sweden. Because of its narrowness this passage is too vulnerable for the Russian fleet and commerce to depend on. Still more vulnerable is the passage from the Black Sea, where there are several Russian ports, to the Mediterranean Sea (Bosphorus strait). This strait has a length of 31 km and an average width of approximately 3 km. The Bosphorus flows (on both directions) through the Turkish territory, very close to the main Turkish city (Istambul).

Russia has also ports in the far East in Vladivostok, but its location is very far from the main production and population centers of the country.

There are active harbours on the Arctic sea, principally in the city of Murmansk, but its location is also somewhat inadequate because of the distance from the main urban centers of Russia, and also because of the restrictions due to its arctic location, periodic freezing and occurrence of icebergs and ice floes.

To overcome these limitations Russia has managed to obtain the authorization to use Syrian territory in the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean sea.

This base is critical for the Russian fleet and therefore the Russian government will take measures to preserve it.

During the last few years there was an international campaign, mainly supported by the United States, some West European countries and Saudi Arabia to change the Syrian government, by supporting some Syrian rebel groups, The aim is to  promote the instauration of an anti-Russian regime in Syria which may cancel the treaties between Syria and Russia, and probably dislodge the Russians from Tartus.

However, Russia is supporting the Syrian regime both politically and militarily and will not allow to be dislodged from Tartus..  .

One stated strategy of the United States (according to Hillary Clinton, who will probably be the next president of the United States) will be to declare a no-fly zone in Syrian territory.

This measure will be difficult to enforce because presently the Russian air force is very active in Syria in support of the government.

How are the United States going to enforce the no-fly zone in Syria, against Russia? are they going to shoot down Russian airplanes? If so, will the Russian government tolerate it?

The United States is playing with fire. A no-fly zone was feasible in Serbia or Iraq. But in Syria it will be much more difficult. The Russians don’t like to be bullied, and they have the right weapons to respond.

A single stupid mistake may trigger a war between the main world powers. The Third World War ? 

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/21/hillary-clinton-admitted-in-2013-that-a-no-fly-zone-would-kill-a-lot-of-syrians-but-still-wants-one/