Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The Third World War that (may be) was avoided

Trump's triumph in the 2016 november elections in the United States may have some foreseeable effects and others not so much.
1) The United States was involved in worsening clashes with Russia in the Middle East, Hillary was talking about an aerial exclusion zone in Syria, where Russian aircraft are operating.
There were serious risks of a widespread war.
Trump, on the other hand, has good relations with Putin / Russia. It will undoubtedly reduce the risk of a conflict between the two powers.
2) Another consequence is that it will restrict immigration to the US as well as acceptance of refugees. In particular, Mexicans and other Latin Americans, as well as Muslims in general, will find more difficult to enter the United States and probably there will be campaigns to expel undocumented immigrants.
3) Free trade agreements will be renegotiated. For some countries it will be more difficult to export to the US. .
4) The financing of US bases, facilities and military personnel abroad will be a topic of discussion. Trump wants Europe, Japan, Korea, Arabia, etc., to share expenses. We will be seen if that results in a limitation of US military deployment in the world.
5) Support for projects to combat "climate change" (in my opinion, a dogma whose scientific truthfulness is doubtful) would end. It remains to be seen which projects will be stopped or postponed 6) I also believe that the anti-Mexican, anti-Muslim discourse will disappear because it has already fulfilled its objective (winning the election).
The US needs the work of Mexican immigrants (and Latin Americans in general) in agriculture as well as industry and services, so I do not think there will be any big changes.
As for Muslims, it should not be forgotten that some Muslim countries are the main clients of the armaments manufacturing complex (eg Saudi Arabia) and inject significant funds into the financial system.
7) An important consequence for Americans themselves relates to taxes. As Trump pledged the mega-rich and corporations will see their taxes considerably reduced and at the same time the deficit will increase. Something similar to what Ronald Reagan did more than 30 years ago.
Otherwise, there are many uncertainties, however, I think that, given the characteristics of the US government, where Congress must authorize many policy measures and decisions, the changes will be relatively moderate.
In short, time will tell.


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